Disturbance ’98L’ could spell tropical trouble in the Gulf of Mexico next week

Disturbance '98L' could spell tropical trouble in the Gulf of Mexico next week
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A tropical disturbance near the Caribbean is being closely watched as a system that could possibly develop into Tropical Storm Hermine and cause future problems in the Gulf of Mexico.

the hurricane hunters it plans to launch reconnaissance missions into the disturbance every 12 hours beginning Wednesday night.

Invest 98L is several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.
(FOX time)

The FOX Forecast Center is now observing a tropical wave off the northern coast of South America that is becoming better organized. Additionally, it is moving into an area that is more favorable for development, and weather forecast models indicate the system could eventually head toward the Gulf of Mexico as a named storm.


The National Hurricane Center has given the area they call Invest 98L a high probability of becoming what would be Tropical Depression Nine within the next two days and TD9 will almost certainly form within the next five days, most likely within of the next two or three. days.

An inversion is simply a naming convention used by the NHC to identify an area of ​​weather that it is investigating for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the coming days.


The system is moving west-northwest at a speed of 15 to 20 mph.
(FOX time)

Hurricane Fiona and the forecast for Invest 98L

NHC stated in its panorama that heavy rain and wind gusts from this new tropical wave were a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands as of early Wednesday, but are expected to hit those islands later Wednesday, which which will make the day quite stormy.

Hurricane Fiona The impact on the regional weather pattern will help direct the new disturbance westward into the Caribbean.

In the short term, FOX Weather forecasters forecast moderate wind shear to impact the tropical wave Wednesday through Friday, keeping the storm’s strength in check. Shear is when the wind blows in different directions and with different speeds at different heights. Any shear could disrupt some of the more organized storm activity and weaken the storm.


But those strength-limiting factors are temporary, and the disturbance is about to find weather conditions much more to its liking this weekend as it moves into the central Caribbean Sea. Not only is the shear expected to be weaker, but warm water temperatures in the upper 80s are also expected. Those temperatures are well above the threshold needed for tropical development.

sea ​​surface temperatures
(FOX time)

“That gives you a ton of energy to tap into,” says FOX Weather’s meteorologist. steve bender. But even more concerning is that warm waters of that 79-degree threshold extend at least 500 feet below the surface in the Caribbean, where this storm system is likely to head.

“With big storms, you’re going to get those big waves — it’s called upwelling, where it churns up the water,” Bender said. “Even if you churn up the water near Jamaica and Cuba, where our two long-range models cause this disturbance, you’ll go 500 feet below the surface and still find water at 79 degrees, or higher. … so there’s really nothing to suppress.” this”.


The disturbance, which will likely be called Hermine by now, is forecast to approach the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, an area primed with moist air and warm water temperatures.

On Tuesday, the best organized disturbance approaches the Gulf of Mexico.
(FOX time)

From there, forecast models provide a host of scenarios for where the storm could head.

Forecast Model Tracks
(FOX time)

Gulf Coast, Florida must monitor the development of Invest 98L

It’s too early for forecasters to identify a storm track with impacts in the US more than a week away, but all Florida and Gulf Coast region residents and visitors should be vigilant. to the forecasts for the next few days. . .

What we know so far…
(FOX time)

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